Scenario Planning

Seeing a long-term vision in focus

The Uncertainty Paradox states that the only certainty is uncertainty. No one can predict the future but your organisation can prepare for multiple futures. I help risk professionals ensure their executive is never caught like a deer stuck in the headlights.

Great scenario planning :

Great scenario planning :

  • Prepares leaders for multiple futures
  • Forces thinking beyond the norm
  • Results in one flexible strategy that provides for 80% of future scenarios

No matter your industry, mining, renewable energy, health, emergency services or a policy making government agency, I can help you imagine, describe and focus on future disruptive opportunities and risks.

Without the lateral thinking and creative writing of scenarios, the inherent bias that resides deep in our brains will prevail. The team will build on what they know rather than what they can be led to imagine.

I love working with teams that understand the world is changing, that the next disruption is just over the horizon and that they can own the future opportunities it presents.

Scenario planning for me is about placing long-term, incredible to imagine scenarios into a funnel. Aligning one strategy towards the majority of them, adding in new scenarios every year and moving the other scenarios through the funnel That is, the scenarios are moved through the funnel by asking the question “Was this assumption right or wrong?” If for one particular scenario you are answering “wrong” often enough, the scenario exits the funnel to be replaced by a new scenario. It is important to orientate your strategy to cater for as many scenarios as possible or the most likely ones. Having a flexible strategy is critical and even more critical is knowing when to re-orientate it.

WHAT MY CLIENTS SAY

  • I first worked with Bryan back in the early days of the COVID pandemic, when the spectre of the unknown loomed large. He brought frameworks for managing risk and making complex strategic decisions in a situation that was the very definition of the Uncertainty Paradox. Team Think offers practical and rigorous tools for all leaders as they embrace uncertainty, navigate complexity, and strive for the flow that underpins success.  

    Ian Brooksbank, CEO: Hydro Tasmania
  • Bryan has helped us design training courses that are well researched and practical. He has also delivered training for us and his dynamic, vibrant style ensured our staff were well engaged which produced excellent results.

    David Moore, A/g Group Manager, Business Effectiveness (Austrade Canberra)
  • Team Think is a book that I strongly recommend to anyone involved in decision making, whether it be a board member, a member of an executive leadership team, management or just those required to make good decisions. The book is informative, thought provoking and an enjoyable read for a wide audience. Brian has a knack for making the complex simple to understand and peppers the text with tools to use in decision making, with examples that have relevance to a wide spectrum of readers. Bryan spells out why decision making is critical to good organisational governance and the deficiencies in many organisations’ governance frameworks around decision making. He highlights the cost to an organisation from poor decisions and why there is a need to focus attention, not only on the large “strategic” and “big bet” decisions at the start of a project, but equally importantly on the myriads of subsequent decisions, some big but many small, that are essential to successful execution of projects. He highlights the importance of good decision flow on an organisation’s growth trajectory. What is needed to make quality team decisions quickly and provides a useful matrix to classify decisions so that the correct process can be identified for each decision. His book is well referenced to the literature on decision making that supports his analysis but presents it in a coherent form that makes the complex research undertaken into the subject of decision making, easily absorbed by the reader. Lastly, Bryan provides a wealth of experience in building support tools and processes for decision making. This is a “how to” book which I recommend as an essential read for those interested in decision making.

    Stuart Black, Non-Executive Director: AACO, noumi Limited